RWC 2019: Are Japan About To Repeat History?

During the 2015 Rugby World Cup, I wrote quite frequently about the tournament and all the various goings on. I had decided against that this time, instead choosing to just watch and enjoy – something I’ve been doing as much as possible. Some of the very early morning games have been missed, and sadly there is no work from home option in my job, otherwise I would have done that on certain match days. I go into the tournament supporting England but hoping all the teams go well, especially the other 3 home nations. From that perspective, things have mostly been good. England and Wales so far undefeated, and as of this writing, England are the first team to officially qualify for the quarter finals. This is excellent to see after what happened in 2015. If England can beat France, they will go onto the last 8 and likely play Australia. This will be a tough game for sure, but one I think England can win. Ireland and Scotland have had mixed tournaments so far, it is probably fair to say, and both of those teams will feature in this blog post – the subject of which is the host nation, Japan.

Japan, I think it is fair to say, won the hearts of the rugby world when they beat South Africa at the 2015 edition of the Rugby World Cup. It was, and remains, one of the biggest upsets in sport. I wrote a tribute blog to some of the smaller nations at the last tournament (which you can read in full here). On Japan, I wrote the following (slightly edited):

The final mention though has to go to Japan. I gave them no chance before this tournament, as I am sure so did many others. There have been so many words written about that game against South Africa. Just yesterday I watched that try which won Japan the game again. It was such a moment in time. The biggest Rugby World Cup upset? Undeniably. The biggest upset in the history of Rugby Union? If there is ever a top 10 list, it will be in it. One of the biggest upsets in sporting history? I would say so, yes. From that moment, almost everyone wanted to watch Japan win. I think it legitimately surprised people just how good they were. Their 4 day turnaround before the game against Scotland was just unfair really, and something which ought to be changed for the next World Cup. Teams like New Zealand can deal with such a short turn around as they can almost pick a new XV from their squad without issue. The smaller nations just can’t do that, and 4 days isn’t long enough to recover properly in time for another game. They comfortably beat Samoa in another game I expected them to lose. Samoa went in at half time having scored no points, and not looking like they would score any. They managed to get one try scored by the time the game ended but Japan were the deserved winners. They went into the last weekend knowing they could potentially qualify for the quarter finals. If Scotland lost to Samoa, they had their chance assuming they could beat the USA – a team they lost to back in July in the Pacific Nations Cup. Sadly for the, (and for rugby as a whole I think), Scotland beat Samoa and qualified for the quarter finals. This meant there was little to be played for in Japan’s game against USA. You wouldn’t know that by watching the game though! Japan played a fantastic game (and USA also played very well). Japan won, and became the only team in Rugby World Cup history to record 3 victories in the pool stage and not qualify for the last eight. It is such a shame they didn’t because they have been great to watch. For me, they have been the team of the tournament so far. Long after this tournament ends, people will still be talking about Japan and I think they will have become a lot of people’s “second” international team. Hopefully, the departure of their coach Eddie Jones does not derail their growth as a rugby nation. It would be great to see them make the last eight at their own Rugby World Cup in 2019.

Before talking about Japan, I would like to address the 4-day turnaround comment. It has not been dealt with in this tournament, but more teams have faced one (or will face one) – which makes it a bit fairer. Still tough for sure, but fair. Anyway, it was a hell of a tournament for Japan, and a real shame they did not qualify. Looking back on their pool, it was clear to see that bonus points (and Japan’s lack of them) was their undoing. Scotland qualified on the same number of wins, but with two additional bonus points to Japan’s zero. I concluded the paragraph above back in 2015 hoping that Japan make the quarter finals in 2019. We are now in 2019, and Japan have a very real chance of doing so. At the start of the tournament, Japan found themselves in a pool with Ireland (the world number one team at the start of the tournament, if you believe the rankings) and old foes from 2015, Scotland and Samoa (as well as Russia). Pre-tournament, I am sure I am not alone in predicting that Japan would finish third, behind Ireland and Scotland (in that order). Then, the tournament started. Predictably, but importantly, Japan kicked off the tournament on the opening night with a bonus point win against Russia. With a bit of a break, they then went into the game against Ireland. No-one really gave Japan a chance in this one, but they shocked the world again by beating Ireland 19-12 (a deserved result as well). This result dramatically shook the apple-cart so to speak in Pool A. The results so far have been:

Japan 30-10 Russia (Japan Bonus Point [BP])
Ireland 27-3 Scotland (Ireland BP)
Russia 9-34 Samoa (Samoa BP)
Japan 19-12 Ireland (Ireland BP)
Scotland 34-0 Samoa (Scotland BP)
Ireland 35-0 Russia (Ireland BP)
Japan 38-19 Samoa (Japan BP)

Which means the business end of the pool table currently looks like this:

  

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	Team	Played	Won	BP	Points
1	Japan	3	3	2	14
2	Ireland	3	2	3	11
3	Scotland	2	1	1	5

The next game in the pool is on Wednesday, when Scotland take on Russia. The Japan/Ireland game (as well as the Fiji/Uruguay game) has proven that anything can happen on the day. I would predict however that Scotland will not only win this game but get a bonus point win. This would keep Scotland third, but put them one point away from Ireland heading into the final weekend of the pool games. The penultimate Pool A match on Saturday sees Ireland take on Samoa. Samoa were no pushover against Japan today, but I would expect an Ireland win, and probably one with a bonus point as well. Samoa have not had the best of World Cups either stopping Ireland from getting the bonus point or beating them would be an excellent way to sign off. However, I am predicting an Ireland bonus point win. This would put Ireland 2 points ahead of Japan, with the final pool match still to be played. This match happens on Sunday, and it is between Japan and Scotland.

Scotland crushed Japan at the 2015 Rugby World Cup. This, as mentioned above, was Japan after a 4-day turnaround. Still though, it was 45-10 to Scotland. The two nations have played twice since, when Scotland went on a summer tour to Japan, Scotland winning both times. Both matches were close affairs, but Scotland did get the win twice. These results are worth keeping in mind but will have no bearing on the game a week on Sunday. If Ireland beat Samoa, this game essentially becomes a knockout game to be the second team to qualify from Pool A. There are several permutations from this one that I can think of. Japan’s best way of getting to the quarter final would of course be to win. There are two other routes to the knockouts for them, one is by losing with a bonus point, and Scotland not getting a try bonus point for scoring 4 tries.  The other is both teams getting a try bonus point, and Japan getting a losing bonus point as well. This would put Japan on 16 points and out of reach of Scotland who can only get on 15. Were that to happen, Japan would also win the pool by virtue of having beaten Ireland in the head-to-head. I guess the point I am trying to make here is that there are a number of ways for Japan to qualify, and they don’t necessarily have to win. Scotland though could spoil the party for them and break Japanese (and the rest of the rugby world’s) hearts again. Could Japan be about to repeat history, and become the second team (after themselves in 2015) to win 3 pool matches, and not qualify for the knockout stages? It is entirely possible.

I have no idea how this will pan out. I am hopeful that Japan will qualify because they have been great this tournament. The old romantic in me wants this to happen as well because it would set up a likely quarter final clash with South Africa…a rematch from the 2015 Rugby World Cup. What a story that would be! It would probably be for the best to not think of the world cup warm match between the two at this point because that somewhat spoils the magic. All I can say for certain is that I am very excited about how all this will play out. Next weekend, when the Japan/Scotland match kicks off, you will find me glued to the TV watching it all unfold. 

RWC 2015 - And Then There Were Four

As of Saturday morning, there were 8 teams left standing in the 2015 edition of the Rugby World Cup. Now, there are only 4. Looking at these fixtures before this weekend, there was only one game I was confident about how it would finish. I also figured that all 4 games would be relatively close. It didn’t quite play out that way mind! I’m going to talk about all 4 quarter finals and what I thought of the games.

The first quarter final was South Africa versus Wales. I had predicted a South Africa win but I really had no idea how this one would end. The first half was a very even affair. Neither team was significantly better than the other I’d say. One thing which was evident however is that Wales had not learned from the mistakes they made against Australia the week before. Gethin Jenkins spurred a very early chance to give the ball to Tyler Morgan who was in a ton of space on his wing. His pass went over the Morgan’s head (Morgan is over 6ft tall by the way) and went out into touch. North had a chance pretty early on to score a try but was stopped short of the try line. I think if he had opted to go to the corner, he would have got across the line but he went into the middle of the park (I guess to try and get closer to the posts) and was unsuccessful in scoring. Wales gave away 4 first half penalties which lead to shots at goal, some of which were a bit cheap. Wales scored the only try of the half to take the lead at that point, but then coughed up one of those aforementioned cheap penalties which gave South Africa the lead back. It looked as though the score would remain 12-10 to South Africa going into the break before Dan Biggar nailed a very sweet drop goal to give Wales the one point advantage going into the break. A very level first half only really as close as it was due to Welsh sloppiness.

The second half was another close affair with each team scoring 6 points apiece with Wales initially extending their lead before South Africa scored a penalty and a drop goal to take the lead. South Africa missed penalties either side of the drop goal, which left me wondering if those misses would come back to haunt them. Wales scored another penalty to take the lead again to make it 19-18 in the 64^th minute. South Africa then attacked Wales quite ferociously, throwing everything but the kitchen sink at them. Wales were defending these waves of attack very well until a late scrum opened up an opportunity for South Africa. They gained a bit of space on the blindside of the scrum, which allowed No.8 Vermeulen the chance to pick up the ball. He was then tackled but managed to offload the ball in a magnificent way (backhanded offload? My word) to the scrum half Fourie Du Preez who dotted down for South Africa’s only try of the game. It was not converted but South Africa had the lead 23-19. This was the final score and Wales were eliminated. A very rough end to Wales’ campaign, especially given the pool they were drawn in. However, they certainly had a couple of chances they didn’t take and coughed up too many penalties. In the end I think, that was their undoing.

The late game on Saturday was New Zealand versus France in the same venue of the famous 2007 quarter final where France had won – the Millennium Stadium. I had hoped for this game as soon as I realised it was possible. In 1999, it was a semi-final that France won, in 2007 a quarter final. New Zealand won the World Cup in 2011 by beating France in the final (by a single point). These two nations had some previous at World Cups and I thought there was no way this game wouldn’t be something special. It turns out I was right, but not in the way I could have possibly imagined. I had predicted a New Zealand win but I assumed it would be a tight game. One thing that is worth remembering from this game is that France took the lead via a Spedding penalty. However from this point, it was pretty much one way traffic. France suffered a pretty significant blow in the 10^th minute when not only did New Zealand score their first try, but one of the men involved in the famous 2007 win, Freddie Michalak picked up a game ending injury. New Zealand scored another two first half tries which Dan Carter converted almost taking the game out of France’s reach before Picamoles struck back with a try of his own. If this try raised France hopes, then Savea’s second of the evening dashed them again. Half time the score was 29-13.

France scored no more points in this game. New Zealand on the other hand scored 5 tries, 4 of which Dan Carter converted. Those 4 converted tries came within 12 minutes. I’m not sure if France stopped trying at times during this or whether New Zealand were just that good. Honestly it could be both. I’m thinking back on the game now and cannot think of a single passenger in the New Zealand team – everyone put in a fantastic shift. Savea’s first try, by the way, was New Zealand’s 300^th try across all of the Rugby World Cups. They are currently on 306 as a result of this game. The next country on the list is Australia with 203. That just goes to show how good New Zealand are at World Cup time. On a personal level, that was Savea’s 4^th test hat trick for New Zealand and he has now scored 38 tries in 39 appearances. He is also the 5^th highest test try scorer for the All Blacks, now having surpassed a certain Jonah Lomu. What a game this was. I would never have predicted this game being as one sided as it was. New Zealand put on an attacking masterclass and played some real champagne rugby. France never got out of first gear. New Zealand won 62-13. The twitter account of the Eggchasers Rugby Podcast pointed out that Namibia only lost 58-14. Remarkable stuff.

The first game of Sunday was Ireland versus Argentina at the Millennium Stadium. Ireland had been knocked out of the previous 5 World Cups at the quarter final stage. Argentina had only made the semi-final once before, in 2007. The pre-game build up to this one couldn’t have been more different. Argentina last played Namibia and were able to make 10 changes from the team that started in that one. Some of the players starting had a 2 week break before lacing up their boots for this one. Ireland’s last game was almost exactly a week earlier, in which they lost 4 (I think? At least 3) players to injury and had another suspended for striking an opponent. Included in those players missing for this one was Paul O’Connell, Johnny Sexton and Sean O’Brien. Still, the patchwork Ireland team that was on the field did manage to beat France and played really very well. It wasn’t exactly a poor Ireland team that took to the field. Although it is probably fair to say they got off to a slow start, which against Argentina at the moment is the worst thing you can do. 13 minutes in, Argentina were 17-0 up thanks to tries from Moroni and Imhoff - and Ireland were looking shell-shocked. They were playing too narrow in defence and were left exposed. Ireland did manage to get back into the game before the end of the half, Fitzgerald scoring an excellent try. As the teams went off, it was 20-10 to Argentina. The momentum was definitely with Ireland though.

Ireland started the second half positively and Argentina now started to look rattled. Ireland scored a try in the 43^rd minute bringing the deficit down to just 3 points and suddenly Ireland believed (as did I) that the biggest come back in Rugby World Cup history was on the cards. The teams exchanged penalties to make the score 23-20 to Argentina when Ireland missed a long range shot at the posts. There was an argument as to whether the Argentinian prop that conceded the penalty, who had already been sent to the bin, should have been sent off for conceding this penalty for a no-arms tackle, but the ref deemed the offense not worthy of a yellow card. Huge call there. Argentina were awarded another penalty for a high tackle which they scored. The momentum, which had been with the Irish for some time, was now shifting to the Argentinians. They made this count in the 68^th minute by getting over the line again for another try. The conversion for this try was spectacular. This try came from Ireland being too narrow again in defence. The score was 33-20 to Argentina and there were just over 10 minutes on the board. Ireland had to score 2 converted tries and prevent Argentina from scoring again. This would be a mammoth task. It proved to be simply too much for them to overcome as in the 72^nd minute, Argentina punched a hole again in the Irish defence and scored another try. This again was converted but this time from in front of the posts. To add insult to injury, Argentina scored another penalty to take the score to the total of 43-20. Ireland had been well and truly beaten in this one. The better team on the day have made the semi-finals.

The final game of the quarter finals was Scotland versus Australia. I’ll be honest, pre-game I had written Scotland off. Australia had looked so good against England and Wales in this tournament and were coming off the back of a successful Rugby Championship campaign – how could they not win this? Early doors there was an Australia try which was deserved. Australia had the best of the possession in the first 10 minutes. It was at this point I wondered if this would be the start of one way traffic similar to what we had seen the night before between New Zealand and France. However, this was not to be. Scotland popped a penalty over the posts before the Australia defence fell to sleep, allowing Horne to grab the ball from the ruck and almost stroll over the line. 10-5 to Scotland and not that it wasn’t already, but game on! Nerves appeared to set in for Australia, evident by Bernard Foley dropping a fairly straightforward catch, leading to a scrum penalty for Scotland which they scored to make it 5-13. Australia knocked on the door a fair bit at this point and for the rest of the half. They scored another two tries but didn’t convert either of them. Laidlaw scored another penalty for Scotland meaning the score at half time was 16-15 to Scotland.

The second half started with a massive decision from the referee Craig Joubert. Bernard Foley managed to offload the ball after being tackled and Sean Maitland appeared to try and grab the ball with one hand. He was unsuccessful and knocked it on. This was ruled as a deliberate knock on and Maitland was sent to the sin bin. That is a tough call to make. I’m sure it was a knock on, I’m not sure it was deliberate. This was to prove costly to Scotland as Australia scored a try which they then duly converted making the score 22-16. Laidlaw shortened the gap with another penalty before it looked very much like Ashley-Cooper had scored another try. However, there was a knock on in the build-up and it was scratched off. Big sigh of relief for Scotland there! Australia scored a penalty of their own to re-establish the 6 point deficit before Scotland returned to full strength. Scotland still looked very much like they stood a chance of winning this one. This much was confirmed when Russell charged down a kick from Foley and got the ball to Seymour who scored a try. Laidlaw missed his first kick of the day but the deficit was back at 1 point, 25-24. Australia banged on the door again and again before they scored another try. It was converted, making the score 32-24. Scotland never gave up, and when awarded a penalty in the 68^th minute, they opted to kick for sticks (I can only assume to reduce the deficit and give themselves the chance to get back in the game). This worked, and they scored it. Scotland continued to give it everything they had. The rain started hammering down in West London, making things more difficult for both teams. Then, a wayward pass from a replacement Australian prop allowed Scotland in to score a try, which was then converted. 34-32 to Scotland with less than 6 minutes to go. Could it be? Well…

Scotland got the nod at a scrum which collapsed. I’m not sure that was the right decision but I was happy it went the way of Scotland. Then a moment which will be talked about for a fair while I think. Scotland had a line out, which they threw to the back of their line (poor call if you ask me), the ball was then knocked on by Scotland, and it hit an Australian player (Phipps I believe) before being gathered by a Scotland player, when an offside call was made. Personally, I think this is the sort of thing which should be covered in the TMO remit. The technology is there, why not use it to confirm? I think in this instance, Joubert might have got this one wrong. There is definitely a knock on by a Scotland player, which means the game should have been stopped there. The last contact of the ball is from an Australian player before being gathered up by Wells. Australia did not take advantage following the knock on which therefore means the game should be stopped. Now, the Scotland player was in an offside position from the Scotland player who last touched the ball, but the player who last touched the ball knocked it on, thus in theory ending play. Sometimes, this sport is complicated! The video is here if you can come up with something different. Anyway, Joubert gave the penalty to Australia which they scored. 35-34 to Australia with less than a minute left. That was the full time score and Scottish hearts were broken. What a game this was. Two massive decisions against Scotland proved costly and the last northern hemisphere team in the competition exited. Scotland played really well though and this was such a cruel way for their World Cup to end.

And with that, the quarter finals ended. The semi-finals, which will take place next weekend are as follows:

South Africa v New Zealand
Argentina v Australia.

For the first time in Rugby World Cup history, there is no team from the northern hemisphere in the final four. Not good news for those of us based in Europe. However, both semi-final games have the potential to be superb games. Both fixtures that occur in the Rugby Championship but with slightly more edge as there is no return fixture this time out. At this stage, both games could really go either way. I think we will see a New Zealand versus Australia final, repeating the inaugural Rugby World Cup final. However, I could well be wrong. I am sure looking forward to finding out if I will be though. 

RWC 2015 - The Final Week Of The Pools

This week has seen the last of the Rugby World Cup pool games played. This blog will be to talk briefly about those games but also to look back on the predictions I made and see how I got on. I predicted how I thought the pools would end up, and how I saw the knock out stages going. Last time I wrote up a round up blog, I finished on Ireland versus Italy, so this blog starts with the next game after that.

I missed the Canada versus Romania game due to work annoyingly. This bottom of Pool D clash was Canada’s last RWC game and having come so close against Italy, I am sure they will have wanted to sign off with a win. They did lead as well, 8-0 at half time. Romania came from behind to pinch the win after a Canadian player was given his marching orders by referee Wayne Barnes. Canada did not record a win at this World Cup but they have looked decent in some of their matches and will hope to build upon this for the next World Cup. After this game was Fiji’s last game against Uruguay. Winless and without points, both Fiji and Uruguay had something to prove in this game. The result went the way it was expected to I think, with Fiji getting the win 47-15. Fiji were deserving of their win, but the headline from this match would be that Uruguay’s 12 year wait for a RWC try ended. They actually scored two tries in this game, one in each half. Uruguay didn’t look bad, but Fiji were just too strong for them.

I again missed the 4.45pm KO on Wednesday (thankfully the last midweek afternoon kick off of the tournament). South Africa had a short turnaround following their win over Scotland before facing the USA. I would say the result was never in doubt, but from all accounts, South Africa just looked dangerous against the USA, who could do little to repel the Springbok attack. USA were unable to make any inroads of their own, failing to register a single point. The final score was 64-0, and South Africa finished top of the pool. No team has ever won the Rugby World Cup having lost a pool game, but if anyone could do it, it could be South Africa. We shall see. The evening kick off on Wednesday was Namibia versus Georgia. Georgia were playing in their final game of the tournament and looking to win a second game at a Rugby World Cup for the first time in their history. Namibia were looking for their first ever victory at a Rugby World Cup and at half time, it looked as though such a feat could occur. An even contest in the first half ended with Namibia 6-0 up. However, 15 minutes into the second half and suddenly Georgia were 14-6 up and you wondered if the floodgates were about to open. They didn’t. Instead, both teams traded penalties to make the score 17-9. Then, in the 73^rd minute, Namibia went over for a try and I think every neutral cheered. The score was converted, making it 17-16 on the scoreboard, and Namibia smelt blood. However, a late penalty gave Georgia the possession near the end and they held on to the ball until full time. Georgia recorded their second win, and Namibia got their first ever point at a Rugby World Cup. Tonga had a big ask on their hands. They could have still made the quarter finals. All they needed to do was beat New Zealand (ideally getting a try bonus point) and hoped Argentina got nothing against Namibia. Stranger things have happened I guess but not on this day. New Zealand won 47-9. Nonu scored a try on his 100^th game for New Zealand which was a nice moment for him I am sure. I’m not sure if it is a running joke in the All Blacks camp, but they tend to have a habit of having very experienced players being the water boy. In this instance, their current captain Richie McCaw (the same McCaw who is the most capped international player, and been picked as Captain over 100 times, again the most in international rugby) had the role of rehydrating the players. I did smile when I saw that. I’ve seen Dan Carter fill the shoes of water boy before as well. I didn’t get to see this game as I was talked into watching it at the pub, which then showed the England football game. That game was dull. That is all I will say about that.

The final weekend of the pool stages had 7 games over two days. The first of these was Scotland versus Samoa. Samoa could not qualify for the quarter finals following their defeats at the hands of South Africa and Japan, but they could certainly spoil the party for Scotland. They haven’t looked great in this tournament thus far but on this day, they looked a lot more like their old selves. Both teams looked very good and this was a great test match. The scoreboard stayed very close throughout the whole game. Half time was 26-23 to Samoa. Samoa had outscored Scotland 3-2 on the tries front, but it was the boot of Greg Laidlaw that was keeping Scotland within touching distance. In the second half, each team scored a try apiece. Scotland first though scored a couple of penalties to take the lead. Scotland then scored a try giving them a 10 point lead and one assumed the win. They did win, however Samoa scored (and converted) a try making the deficit a mere 3 points. Scotland held on and won, making the quarter finals. Samoa recorded two bonus points from this game (the second time this had happened in this pool) and must have been left wondering “what if” – what if they had been that good throughout every game. They might have made the last eight, instead they finished 4^th in their pool.

The next match on the Saturday was the battle for Pool A. Australia and Wales had both qualified for the quarter finals already, but this game was not just a dead rubber. The winner would get a quarter final against Scotland, and have no chance of facing New Zealand until the final. The loser? Well their quarter final would be against South Africa and would likely have to face the All Blacks in the next round. Australia had won their last 10 matches against Wales, but a number of those matches were extremely close – this was a very hard one to call. This match was for me, the second best match of the tournament so far (behind Japan/South Africa). When they talk about classic test matches between southern and northern hemisphere nations, this one will likely be thought of. No tries were scored but that doesn’t take anything away from it. I’d say Australia were deserving winners for two reasons. Firstly, they were bossing the scrum. They gave the Welsh props a bit of a headache throughout the game. Secondly, their defence was outstanding. There was 13 minutes of the second half when the Wallabies were down at least one player, and for most of that time, they were down two players. Wales attacked that line mercilessly but Australia defended heroically. That defence was just phenomenal. I couldn’t work out how Wales didn’t get anything from that 13 minutes. Wales needed points in that time, and they didn’t get them. If they do that in the knockout stages, they will be knocked out, it is as simple as that. Australia won 15-6, and won Pool A. They will now face Scotland in the last eight. Wales, well they could have to beat South Africa and New Zealand before possibly playing Australia again. If Wales win the World Cup, they really will have beaten the best.

England’s final game of the tournament was in unfamiliar surroundings – the home of Manchester City – the Etihad Stadium (City of Manchester Stadium if you like). The game was against Uruguay and England were expected to win. They picked a slightly different team to the ones that played Wales and Australia. Jamie George was in the squad and Henry Slade started at 13 for this one. A player who can comfortably play 13 playing at 13….what sorcery is this?! Oh, he was partnered in the centres by Owen Farrell because of course he was. Another new centre partnership for Stuart Lancaster. What is the record for different 12/13 pairings for international teams in under 4 years? I’d love to know if someone has picked more than Lancaster. Anyway, the first points on the board were scored by Uruguay because England showed they still have issues with giving away penalties. Uruguay went 3-0 up and scored no more points for the rest of the game. It was basically one way traffic from then on. England scored 10 tries over the course of the game but still could have played better. Nick Easter scored a hat trick which I loved. Jack Nowell also scored a hat trick. Slade dotted down one and Anthony Watson scored a brace. The final try was a penalty try. All of the tries were well taken which was comforting to see. I would love to go into more detail about the game, however I watched this one at a pub where the game was on without commentary and people kept standing in the way of the TV (and in one instance turning the TV off…) so it is difficult for me to remember everything. It has nothing to do with the amount of alcohol consumed during or after the game. Not at all. Nope.

The first game of the final pool stage day was Argentina, who had their quarter final qualification confirmed by the All Blacks beating Tonga, taking on Namibia, who had played a game midweek against Georgia in a losing effort. Despite the fact they had already qualified, Argentina picked a strong team to face Namibia. It was a fairly one sided affair but it was a really entertaining game of running rugby. At half time it was 36-7 to Argentina, who were putting in a great performance. The second half it was more of the same really, except Namibia scored 2 tries. The last one came right at the end, and the squad, led by captain Jacques Burger celebrated massively. It was a great moment to see how much it meant to the team. It became obvious as to why this was shortly, when the most capped player for Namibia, Johannes Redelinghuys (a prop) stepped up to take the conversion. The game was his 50th cap for Namibia and was his last game before retirement. The kick sadly didn't make it over the posts but it will stick in the mind as one of the best moments of the tournament, showing that rugby hasn't lost its fun side. I know I talked about this in my last blog, but I really liked this moment. Much like in a game last season where after receiving penalty advantage, Adam Jones, the legendary Wales prop, attempted a drop goal. It was a kick to nothing essentially as the penalty was coming but it was a great moment. Italy versus Romania was up next. This was an interesting match as I've seen some discussion about introducing promotion/relegation to the Six Nations, with Romania being discussed as one of the teams that could be promoted. Romania, if they won, would finish above Italy in Pool D and automatically qualify for the 2019 Rugby World Cup so there was a lot at stake in this one. I would say Italy were the better side for most of this match. They went in at half time 22-3 up. Romania looked better as the game wore on, and I had hopes they might get a try and losing bonus point out of this one, but not to be. The game ended 32-22.

The clash of the top of Pool D, and another battle between Six Nations rivals was up next. Ireland versus France. The winner would have a quarter final match with Argentina, the loser would face the All Blacks. The first half was a very tight affair, ending 9-6 to Ireland. The main story to come of the half though was that Johnny Sexton and Paul O'Connell both went off injured. As of this writing, there has been no update on whether Sexton will miss any matches. Paul O'Connell however tore his hamstring and is out for the rest of the tournament. What a horrible end to your international career. He joins Peter O'Mahony who will miss out on the rest of the tournament after sustaining knee ligament damage in this game. I did wonder how Ireland would do after losing two of their key players but I have to say, they did great. It was almost as if they had built a squad that can fit the way they play - rather than change their entire system if an injury occurred. Even after losing O'Mahony they still controlled the game really well. They scored two tries in the second half and kept the French out of the game. Ireland looked really good in this one. Early on in the game, Pascal Pape collapsed on the floor near the breakdown, and it was not seen at first what happened. After the game, it was noticed that Sean O'Brien punched him. He has since been cited and will very likely miss the quarter final game against Argentina. The final pool stage game was USA v Japan. Everyone at this point knew Japan were going home after the game but I think everyone who was not American wanted them to win. Japan actually lost to the USA before the Rugby World Cup as well, so it was going to be an interesting game. It was a fairly even game I would say but it was clear that Japan were the better team. USA as well were playing after a short turnaround since their thrashing at the hands of South Africa which could have contributed to the end result. Japan won the game 28-18, meaning that the USA and Uruguay were the only teams to get no points from the pool stages. It also confirmed that Japan are the first team to win 3 pool stage games and not make the quarter finals. They will be missed for sure.

And so, the pool stages are over. Some time ago, I predicted how I thought the tables would finish and what the quarter finals would look like. I will briefly go over my predictions and add some thoughts.

Pool A

My Prediction

England
Australia
Wales
Fiji
Uruguay

How It Finished

Australia
Wales
England
Fiji
Uruguay

Well, bugger. England lost both of their big matches in this pool and have been eliminated. The frustrating thing about how the table has finished is that had England opted for the kick at the end of the Wales game, they would have qualified because of the bonus points they scored. However, the Australia/Wales game would have been completely different I think if Wales had to win to stay in the competition so that is a moot point really. I've spoken at length about England in another post. To be honest, they didn't deserve to qualify. Fiji did lose their three big games but they were not pushed over in any of them, which was good to see. Uruguay...well, their points difference was less than -200! They are still at amateur level with their rugby so them losing all 4 games without really having much to show for it was not a surprise. They managed to score their first World Cup try since 2003, which is something to take away from this tournament.

Pool B

My Prediction

South Africa
Samoa
Scotland
Japan
USA

How It Finished

South Africa
Scotland
Japan
Samoa
USA

South Africa finishing top shouldn't come as much of a shock but I expected them to win all 4 games. I'm not sure if you have heard (!) but they lost to Japan. What a moment. They looked very good in their other 3 games though and had their top spot confirmed before the final weekend of games. Scotland, I'm glad to see them make the last eight but I so wanted to see Japan make it. That would have been one hell of a story. I think the team who will be most disappointed is Samoa. They didn't look like their usual selves in any of their matches aside from the last one against Scotland, and now will have to qualify for the next World Cup. USA are still in the development stage and hopefully will get more time as a team to grow. I think they will be more of a challenge at the next tournament.

Pool C

My Prediction

New Zealand
Argentina
Tonga
Georgia
Namibia

How It Finished

New Zealand
Argentina
Georgia
Tonga
Namibia

Well, I wasn't far off! The main stories from this pool were how good Argentina looked, how New Zealand didn't finish on maximum points for the first time in a pool stage (it was only one dropped bonus point but still) and Georgia having their best showing at a Rugby World Cup, securing qualification for the next tournament. Georgia beat Tonga in their opener, beat Namibia in a close game and put in one hell of a shift against New Zealand. I'm glad they finished 3rd. Tonga will be disappointed to miss out on guaranteed qualification and now may end up missing the next one. It would be strange if they weren't there. Namibia got a losing bonus point for the first time at a World Cup, and won my heart (if not everyone's) with their last kick of the tournament. I imagine they will be back next time out.

Pool D

My Predictions

Ireland
France
Italy
Canada
Romania

How It Finished

Ireland
France
Italy
Romania
Canada

Again, I wasn't far off. Ireland looked really good in all their games except for against Italy. They could have done better in that one. Canada had two close games and will I'm sure rue going home without a win. Italy have qualified for the next one but never really looked like threatening the last eight. Romania looked good at times, troubling France and snatching a win against Canada.

So, this weekend sees the start of the quarter finals. France versus the All Blacks again will be an interesting one and will without doubt have the best video package beforehand due to their World Cup history. I'm not going to do a whole new list of predictions. I will just give my quarter final ones and review them again next time out. The teams that I think will win are in bold.

South Africa v Wales
New Zealand v France
Ireland v Argentina
Australia v Scotland

I am really looking forward to all four games and hope for some good rugby. This last weekend of the pools offered up some great moments and some great matches. I hope that continues this weekend!

RWC 2015 - The Week In World Cup Rugby

The Rugby World Cup has now been going for just over 2 weeks and so far, it is shaping up to be one of the best World Cups in the history of the game. Records are being set and broken quite frequently (or at least it appears that way). As with the last post to this page, I wrote about the results and some of my thoughts on the games. This will be a two part blog though as there is a fair bit to be written about the first host nation to not make it out of the pool stages. I left off last time with Australia having just pumped Uruguay 65-3 – the biggest point difference in a game so far in this World Cup.

In what seemed like a repeat of their last game, Scotland started off slow against the USA. Now, they had played 4 days earlier against Japan but unlike Japan, Scotland have reasonable depth in their squad. It would be foolish to say this short turnaround wouldn’t impact them at all, but Scotland, like all of the bigger rugby nations, would be better equipped to deal with it than say Japan (or any other tier 2 nation for that matter). USA scored the only try of the first half and went in at half time with a 13-6 lead. While it was possible at this stage for an upset to happen, I figured it was only a matter of time before Scotland would wake up and take control of this game. The second half was pretty much all one way traffic in Scotland’s favour with USA only getting 3 more points. Scotland scored 5 tries (4 of which were converted) giving them a 39-16 win. In the 3^rd and final game of Sunday 27^th September, Ireland faced Romania and once again, the record attendance at a Rugby World Cup was broken – 89, 267 people were at this game. Ireland comfortably won this game, scoring six tries against Romania. One of the main talking points would be whether the Irish defence could hold out and prevent Romania from scoring a try. They succumbed eventually and the final score was 44-10 to Ireland.

I can’t talk much about the Tonga v Namibia game (the only game on the 29^th September) as it kicked off when I was at work and I ended up missing the rest of the game due to travelling and the need to go food shopping (a poor excuse I accept). Namibia scored 3 tries in this game, two of which came from their captain Jacques Burger. It would have been good to see them get one more and come away with a bonus point but alas, not to be. October kicked off with a game which somehow seems to be a regular at Rugby World Cups – Wales v Fiji. They have played each other now for 3 RWC’s in a row. Before this game it was one game all, with the Fiji win in 2007 being a pretty historic win for the Pacific Islanders. The 2011 game however was a tad one sided, with Wales winning 66-0. Once again, I missed this game due to having to work late. From what I heard though, it was a very close match, with Wales doing well to get the win. Wales won this one 23-13 and much like Australia, failed to get a try bonus point. I wondered at the time if this might come back to haunt them. Answer? No. Fiji have put up a good fight against 3 of the top teams in the world, and played some really good rugby. Almost seems criminal they haven’t at least got one bonus point. Such is life. I suspect they will look to batter Uruguay and have something to show for their tournament. The evening game on Thursday was France versus Canada. I expected this to be one way traffic in favour of France. However, credit where credit is due - Canada actually played quite well at times during this match. They seemed to fall away as the game went on though and France took advantage, with them getting the win 41-18.

The only game of Friday night was New Zealand taking on Georgia. I don’t think anyone gave Georgia a chance in this one. It was a great sight though to see how happy the Georgians were at getting to play the All Blacks. This much was obvious just looking at their faces during the haka – there were several big grins beaming. New Zealand took just 73 seconds to score their first try. When this happened, my immediate thought was “how many will we see tonight?” However, the next score to come was a try from Georgia! They capitalised on a New Zealand error and scored a try, which they then converted as a result. I think if Georgia could declare at this point, they would have. 5 minutes in and they were level at 7 all. Sadly, that was the only try of the game for Georgia. New Zealand scored 7 in total and won 43-10. The main talking points from this game were that New Zealand were not their usual selves in that they made a large number of handling errors (19 I think it was – some of which definitely denied them more tries) and Dan Carter looked positively human from the kicking tee. However, I feel the question does need to be asked, if New Zealand can make as many errors as they did, and still score 7 tries – how many would they have scored if they didn’t make any errors? Frightening thought really.

Saturday started off with Samoa versus Japan. Samoa had to win this game if they wanted to keep their hopes of making it out of the pool alive. Japan were in much the same boat. They benefitted from having 10 days between their last game against Scotland and this one. Samoa had a week so really, it was two fresh teams facing off. Not that you would have known it looking at Samoa. I don’t know what it is about them, but they just haven’t looked very good at this World Cup. They looked poor against South Africa but I wondered if part of that was to do with the Springboks showing how good they actually are.  This performance against Japan was not good though, which made me wonder if there is something systematically wrong in the Samoa camp at the moment (well, there has been a lot of chat about issues with the rugby authorities in Samoa but that aside). However, Japan didn’t win this game purely because Samoa weren’t playing well – Japan were worthy of their second win of this Rugby World Cup. They went in at half time 20-0 up. The second half was a much tighter contest between the two, but Japan won the second half points-wise, meaning the full time score was 25-6. Cracking result for Japan this one.

The next game was the top of the pool clash between South Africa and a weakened Scotland team at St James’ Park in Newcastle. I couldn’t work out why Vern Cotter had made as many changes as he did for this game. Perhaps it was so the first choice team will face Samoa and they stand a better chance of winning that one? I’m not sure. This game was all South Africa. Scotland didn’t get much of a look in really. South Africa proved in this one they were still a force to be reckoned with. At half time, they went in 20-3 in front and it didn’t look like Scotland were going to get back in it. They didn’t. Scotland did score a second half try but they couldn’t build on that to even secure a losing bonus point. Two moments of madness from Scotland are worth mentioning. Greg Laidlaw was sent to the sin bin for deliberately taking Bryan Habana out off the ball, preventing him from potentially scoring a try. It was a very cynical move by the Scotland captain and had it been closer to the try line, I think his visit to the bin might have been accompanied by a penalty try. The other moment of madness was Stuart Hogg seemingly taking a dive to claim he was more hurt from a collision with a South Africa player in the air than he actually was. Replays showed that the collision was minimal and Hogg had in fact taken a dive. The referee for this one was Nigel Owens – who had a few choice words to say to Hogg. I do love Nigel Owens sometimes, and this is one of those times. South Africa won this one 34-16. Australia beat England 33-13. I will be doing a separate blog about this result and what England’s elimination from the tournament means for them going forward.

Today offered up two games, one each from pools C and D. Both had potential to be very interesting. Argentina were playing Tonga, who were above them in the pool (a solitary bonus point separating the two teams). Ireland were facing Italy in a reprise from the Six Nations at the Olympic Stadium. I had assumed Argentina and Ireland would win their respective games, but I was surprised at which one was closer, score line wise. The first half in the Argentina/Tonga game was really close, with Argentina getting two tries on the board and then Tonga following suit. Half time was 20-13 to Argentina and at this point, I really felt we were in for a cracking second half where it could go either way. The second half was really good but it was one sided. Argentina scored a further 3 tries, securing a try bonus point. The final score was 45-16. I will be interested to see how Argentina develop as most of the starters in this game have all signed for the new Argentina Super Rugby franchise, which means the national team will be playing with each other for most of the year against some really good opposition. That can only do good things for the game in Argentina. Ireland versus Italy was a very tight affair, a much tighter game than I would have imagined it would be. Italy haven’t looked great at this World Cup and suffered a bit of a scare at the hands of Canada last week. Ireland on the other hand have been playing quite well. I dipped in and out of this game but from what I saw, Ireland were being frustrated by Italy and struggled to get their game going. The only try of the game came in the first half. I know it is wrong to suggest that any team is a one man team, but I wonder if it is much of a coincidence that Italy made a rapid improvement in their play when Sergio Parisse recovered from injury and took his place in the Italian pack. It was not enough however to lead them to victory. Ireland won 16-9 and consigned Italy to an early exit.

So, with most teams having just the one game left, what is the state of the pools?

Pool A – Australia and Wales will face off in a pool winner shoot out next Saturday at Twickenham. England are out of the Rugby World Cup – the first host nation to fail to make it to the knock out stages.

Pool B – This is a very tight pool actually. South Africa have a 4 day turn around before facing USA at the Olympic Stadium. They are currently top by a point but one would assume they will win this game and probably pick up maximum points. If they do, they will win the pool and face the loser of Australia v Wales. USA then have a 4 day turn around before facing Japan. Scotland face Samoa on Saturday. For Samoa to qualify, they need maximum points out of their game against Scotland and for Japan to get no points against USA – unlikely I would say. Japan are currently 3^rd in the pool, two points behind Scotland. For them to qualify, they need Scotland to lose to Samoa and not get 2 bonus points. Scotland just need to beat Samoa and they will qualify for the quarter finals. Simple right? I think we are in for some drama in this pool before all is said and done.

Pool C – New Zealand have qualified from this pool. Who saw that coming? Their last game is against Tonga, who are the only team who can prevent Argentina from qualifying. In a nut shell, to qualify, Tonga need to beat New Zealand and Namibia, after a 4 day turn around, need to beat Argentina. So I guess what I am trying to say is that New Zealand and Argentina have qualified from this pool. I guess it is still technically possible for Tonga to qualify. However, their chances are remote.

Pool D – Ireland and France have qualified from this pool and will face off in a pool winner shoot out next Sunday. The winner will likely get a quarter final date with Argentina. The loser will likely get a quarter final date with New Zealand. I think I speak for everyone who wants to see history repeat itself when I say COME ON IRELAND! It would be awfully funny if France and New Zealand played each other again at a Rugby World Cup, and funnier still if France won again.

We have one more week of pool games before the business end of the tournament begins. Two things are for sure. The first is that England will not be in the knockout stages for the first time since the inception of this tournament. The second is that this tournament is just getting going in terms of excitement. I think we are in for some great rugby before the pool stages wrap up. I will post another blog as I said earlier about England, but I will be back next weekend to sum up the weeks games and to talk about the quarter finals, and if my predictions were right (I know one of them was wrong!)

RWC 2015 - England Under Pressure

9 days have passed since the 2015 Rugby World Cup started and the tournament so far has lived up to all the hype. When I last wrote about action in the tournament, I was talking about last Saturday’s shock win for Japan over South Africa plus the other games that took place on that day. There has been a lot of rugby since then to talk about. I will go through the games in chronological order and give some thoughts on them.

Sunday 20^th September started off with Samoa versus USA – two teams that had played each other in the recent Pacific Nations Cup (with Samoa winning 16-21). The two teams before this contest had played each other 4 times, with Samoa winning all 4 games but by a slim margin (never by more than 7 points I believe). The game was entertaining enough but riddled with errors on both sides. USA looked handy enough at times but it was obvious Samoa were the better team and won 25-16 – their highest winning margin against the USA to date. Wales then kicked off their World Cup campaign against Uruguay. I didn’t give much hope to Uruguay in this one and even when they took an early lead through a couple of penalties, I didn’t see it lasting. Sure enough it didn’t. Wales scored 8 tries in this one-sided victory. I’m sure it could have been more as well. The final game of Sunday was the biggest clash in Pool C, New Zealand v Argentina. The game set a new record for highest attendance for a game at a Rugby World Cup (89,019). I missed some of this game but from what I saw, it looked as though Argentina gave the All Blacks a good game – they even went in at half time in front 12-13. New Zealand won 26-16 though denying Argentina a losing bonus point they arguably deserved. One further point from this game – I heard one of the commentators say that this was the first time New Zealand had failed to get a bonus point win in a pool stage game. Amazing record to have had, but if accurate, it is now over.

There was then a 2 day break where the opening weekend was chewed over a lot before the action resumed. Wednesday 23^rd offered up 3 matches, all of which were very interesting. The day started in Gloucester with Scotland opening up their campaign against the previous weekend’s heroes, Japan. There was some chat before the game about how Japan only had a 4 day turn around between games and whether that would come back to bite them (both physically and mentally). Regardless of this though, after their win against the 2 time world champions, you couldn’t write them off. Japan dominated the first half pretty much, with Scotland on the back foot. When they did attack though, they made it count, with Greg Laidlaw looking very sharp scoring 4 penalties. Japan on the other hand were on the attack a lot but only had one try to show for it. Scotland almost got a try just before half time but a magnificent tackle from a Japanese wing prevented the try from being scored. Half time was 12-7 to Scotland and before the game, Eddie Jones had said if Japan were still in the game, they would come back and win it. With 5 points separating the teams, you had to wonder if this would happen. The first score of the second half went to Japan thanks to a penalty. From this point on though, it was all one way traffic. Scotland waited for their opportunity to strike and took it well. Not long after the Japan penalty, Scotland scored a try. As the half rumbled on, they scored another 4 tries. Japan looked dead on their feet during the second half, proving that they just couldn’t handle the 4 day turnaround between games. Credit where it is due for both teams though, as this was a really good game of rugby. Full time score was 45-10 to Scotland.

The day’s other games were Australia v Fiji and France v Romania. I think deep down I had hoped for an upset in one of these games but realistically knew it wasn’t going to happen (that Japan win has thrown me through a loop with how I think games will end). Due to the timing of the game, I missed the bulk of the first half of Australia/Fiji as I was at work and then travelling home from work. Fiji looked pretty good against the Wallabies, but it was clear who the stronger team were. That said, Fiji did manage to frustrate Australia in the second half. Australia won 28-13 but did not pick up a bonus point win – in Pool A, which could be crucial. Speaking of teams being frustrated, France were by Romania at times. They picked up a bonus point win, which probably doesn’t come as much of a shock, but Romania really caused them problems at times. They also looked pretty solid at the lineout and scrum – a good platform to build off of. I’m not sure if it was Romania tiring or France stepping up a gear (or both), but 3 second half tries confirmed the bonus point for them in a 38-11 win.

Thursday saw New Zealand field a weakened (!) team against Namibia. 1^st in the world vs 20^th – this one was pretty much an open and shut case – the All Blacks would win. Win they did as well, 58-14. I didn’t see the game but I was told Namibia actually did quite well at times and deserved their try. Richie McCaw came on and broke another record, most appearances for an All Black at a Rugby World Cup. It is going to take some player to break the records he has set. Friday saw Pool C opponents Argentina take on Georgia. At half time it was 14-9, and Georgia were looking alright and deserved to be close to Argentina. In the second half however, disaster struck. Their captain and talisman, Mamuka Gorgodze got sent to the sin bin. In the 10 minutes he was off the pitch, Georgia shipped 21 points. When he came back, Georgia were defeated and Argentina had their tails up. They secured a bonus point and won the game 54-9.

It was at this point we arrived at the second weekend of the Rugby World Cup. There were 3 games scheduled for yesterday – Italy versus Canada, South Africa versus Samoa and then the headline act – England versus Wales. Italy against Canada was going to be an interesting one. I suspect neither team will qualify from the pool but both teams would want to win this game as they don’t tend to win many games. Canada held their own throughout the game, and caused Italy a few scares at times. In the end though, it was 2 kicks which separated the two teams on the scoreboard with Italy winning 23-18. South Africa versus Samoa was going to be an interesting clash on the grounds that it really could have gone either way. Pre-tournament, I would have said South Africa without hesitation but after the Japan game, I had to give it some more thought. Samoa would go into this game hoping for a win anyway, but after the result the weekend before, I reckon belief would have soared in the Samoa camp. They however needed to turn up and play their absolute best as South Africa would be looking to strike back with a vengeance. I think it is fair to say that on reflection, Samoa didn’t play their best. I don’t think South Africa did either but I also don’t think they needed to. South Africa won 46-6 and it could have been more if their kicking stats were better. Samoa will be disappointed with this result for sure. They did however set a new first, having 3 brothers from the same family on the pitch at the same time – Ken, George and Tusi Pisi made history at this World Cup.

England versus Wales – what can I possibly say to describe how big this match was. The biggest between the two teams? Arguably. There was a lot of chat in the build-up about team selection. It started with the news that Ben Morgan and Jonathan Joseph were injured and would miss the game. It was obvious that Billy Vunipola would step in at No.8. What wasn’t obvious though was what the centre partnership would be. It was leaked in the week that Farrell would start at 10 ahead of George Ford and the centre partnership would be Burgess at 12, Barritt at 13 – another new centre partnership under Stuart Lancaster for England. I wasn’t happy with this team change – given the options, I would have started with Burgess or Barritt at 12 (probably Barritt), and Slade at 13. I’d also have preferred Ford to Farrell, but I understand why Farrell was picked. Going into the game, I suspected Wales would win. I thought it would be close, but I just didn’t see this England team being good enough to beat Wales. It should go without saying, but despite my opposition to the selection changes, I would still back the team 100%, whatever the result.

I hate being right. The first half was an even affair which I would say England edged. England conceded a few sloppy penalties which Dan Biggar had no trouble punishing England for. Farrell also looked good from the kicking tee and scored a drop goal. England’s only try came in the first half for Jonny May who was on the end of a well worked move. 16-9 and half time, and I found myself believing it was possible that a win would come. I had concerns about the partnership of Burgess and Barritt but up to this point, they had played well (and only been found out once). The second half started and again, England’s discipline was poor. Wales again did not hesitate to punish them. England were 10 points up on two separate occasions, but continued to concede penalties and Wales remained within 7. At one point they were within 4 until Wales conceded a pen and England were back in front by 7. It was 25-18 to England when a defensive lapse occurred (Watson and Barritt the main culprits for England) and Wales scored a try under the posts which was then converted. England then conceded a penalty for not releasing about 50 metres from the posts. Biggar proved that Wales were not missing Halfpenny by slotting the kick and giving Wales the 25-28 lead which would be the final score. It however could have been different but for one decision by Robshaw. Right towards the end of the game, in the Wales 22, England are awarded a penalty by the touch line. Instead of going for posts and hopefully securing a draw, the call is made to kick to the corner. The subsequent lineout is secured but the players could not form a driving maul and instead, Wales put them into touch. At this point, it was game over. It could be said that Wales wanted the win more, but my view of the game is that England generally played well enough to win, as did Wales. England’s biggest fault was they conceded too many penalties and allowed Wales to remain in the game. Of course, questions will be asked of Robshaw for that penalty call. Was he thinking of the Japan game? Did he think any kick would be too difficult to make? Did he think a draw would not be enough? These questions and more will be asked of him. But bigger questions need to be asked of the whole team, especially if they have an early exit in a fortnight. Wales suffered heavily though with this win, with two players stretchered off and another going off with what looked like a dislocated shoulder. You never want to see that and I hope the players all make a quick recovery.

What is the state of play then, just over a week in?

Pool A – Australia are top, having just beat Uruguay 65-3. They are on 9 points. . Wales are currently second on 9 points. England are third on 6, Fiji and Uruguay fill up the bottom spots, each with 0 points. England, to remain in the tournament, have to beat Australia. Wales need to avoid a slip up against Fiji and at least get a LBP against Australia. As for Australia, they have their two hardest games left, and they need to make sure they get something out of them both. This pool is far from decided, but the pressure is on England to remain in the tournament.

Pool B – South Africa went to the top of the pool with their big win over Samoa, and are currently on 7 points. Scotland are second with 5. Samoa and Japan are 3^rd and 4^th respectively, both with 4. The USA currently have no points. Scotland versus the USA is the next game after Australia v Uruguay concludes. I imagine Scotland will win, get a bonus point again and open up a 3 point lead at the top of the pool. They then however play both Samoa and South Africa. If they can beat Samoa, they will qualify. If they win both, they will of course top the pool.

Pool C – New Zealand top with 9 points. Argentina second with 5. Georgia 3^rd with 4. Tonga are 4^th with 1 and Namibia are bottom with 0. Tonga versus Namibia is the next game that will take place in Pool C.

Pool D – France are top with 9 points. Ireland are second on 5 (but have only played one game). Italy are 3^rd on 4. Canada are 4^th on 1, and Romania are bottom with 0. I expect Ireland, when they play Romania today will get a bonus point win and sit atop of Pool D.

Exciting times have happened, and there is still plenty more to get excited about. England have everything to do in order to progress in this World Cup. There will be some big questions to be asked this week, and potentially some even bigger ones to be asked next week. 

Rugby World Cup 2015 Predictions

Today is the day that Rugby fans have long been looking forward to. It is the opening day of the 2015 installment of the Rugby World Cup. Living in the host country, there has been a lot of hype for this tournament. On a personal level, I would say I am more excited about this World Cup than I have been previous tournaments. In 2011, I was still pretty new to the game - I had attended a couple of games and would occasionally watch England on TV. I would also keep an eye on the Bath results. In the 2010-11 domestic season, I made the switch from football being the main sport I follow to rugby union. By the time the 2011 World Cup rolled around, I was a fan but I still had a lot to learn about the game (hell I’m still learning). This time around, I’ve been a supporter for several years. I try to keep up with the game as much as possible and as such, have been caught up in the hype of this tournament for some time. The opening game is today, and I’ll be heading to Twickenham soon to be there. The point of this post is to not just talk about my excitement about the tournament and how it has finally arrived, but to post my predictions for the tournament. I’ve not opted for any major surprises in this prediction I don’t think (although if the quarter finals pan out the way I think they will, there will be a couple very interesting contests). Anyway, onto the predictions! For the pool stages, I won’t be predicting each game but rather putting up the way I think the pool will finish.

Pool A

England
Australia
Wales
Fiji
Uruguay

What a tough pool! It seems to get worse the more I look at it. 4 of the top 10 teams in the world in one group – quite something really. It is also a bit frustrating when you look at other pools but never mind. I think England will come out on top of this pool. I think home advantage will give them the edge over Wales and Australia. I’m not sure they will go through the pool stage undefeated, but I can see them doing enough to win it. I would have predicted Wales to finish 3^rd in the pool 3 weeks ago. Now they have lost Leigh Halfpenny and Rhys Webb? I know they are just two men in a 31 man squad, but they are two massive names to lose right before the tournament. I think that will be their undoing this time around which I am sad about. One thing I love about the World Cup is watching the world’s best players play on the biggest stage. Injuries can happen at any time, but them happening right before the world cup just seems cruel. I think Fiji won’t be anyone’s pushover, but I don’t see them beating England, Australia or Wales. As for Uruguay…at least they qualified!

Pool B

South Africa
Samoa
Scotland
Japan
USA

No disrespect to the other four teams in this pool, but South Africa will win this pool. I don’t see them being tested by USA or Japan. Samoa and Scotland might throw up a bit of a challenge, but I think they will be able to see them off. The big battle for me will be between Scotland and Samoa. I think Samoa will win the match between the two of them and see themselves through to the last eight. There are a lot of positive noises coming out of the Japan and USA camps, but I think at this world cup, they will finish in 4^th and 5^th place respectively. I think Japan will beat USA and use that as a platform to build on for when they host the world cup in 2019 (by the way, has a host ever gone out at the group stage?)

Pool C

New Zealand
Argentina
Tonga
Georgia
Namibia

No disrespect to the other four teams in this pool (wait a minute…) but New Zealand will win this pool. Their main challenge will be Argentina and they are undefeated against them (21 matches, 20 wins and 1 draw). I think Argentina have been looking fairly good as of late though (especially that win away against South Africa) and I think they will get the better of the other teams in the pool. I have guessed Tonga will finish 3^rd. I think they will better Georgia and Namibia. As for Georgia v Namibia…I mean I’m pretty confident that I’ll watch it. It could be the game I’m looking forward to least in this tournament to be honest (possibly tied with Canada v Romania from Pool D). Speaking of…

Pool D

Ireland
France
Italy
Canada
Romania

Italy will make some noise in this pool, but for me it will be between Ireland and France, and I think Ireland will finish top. It really could go either way between these two though. I predict it will finish this way, but I also hope it will finish this way for reasons that will become clear when discussing the quarter finals. The only way I see Italy making the last eight is if they pull off an unlikely victory over France. They have done that a couple of times recently so it could happen. Canada and Romania will unlikely get a win against the top 3 teams in this pool and will scrap it out to not go home having lost all four games.

Quarter Finals

South Africa v Australia
New Zealand v France
Ireland v Argentina
England v Samoa

South Africa against Australia will be an epic encounter. I reckon Australia will win this as they have looked pretty good in recent months but this is one that could go either way. New Zealand v France at the Rugby World Cup – if only there was some history to refer back to…! I think New Zealand would win this rematch of the 2011 final, but France have a bit of a habit when it isn’t the final of sticking it to the All Blacks in the knockout stages so who knows? I think Ireland will be given a tough match against Argentina, but I see them winning that one. I think it will be a similar story between England and Samoa to be honest. At this stage in the tournament, no game is a sure thing, but if I were a betting man, I’d say England will win this one.

Semi Finals

Australia v New Zealand
Ireland v England

Australia against New Zealand have had so many fantastic matches between them. The most recent of these clashes saw both teams each grab a win. I appreciate that I’ve said this a lot so far, but this one could go either way. I am calling a New Zealand win, but I would not be surprised to see Australia get the win. Before the tournament, I thought this is where England would bow out. However, the performance against Ireland a few weeks ago really encouraged me. I think if England go into this game and don’t underestimate Ireland’s game, they could come out victorious in this one. This game being at Twickenham could be a huge advantage as well.

Bronze Medal Match

Australia v Ireland

I have a ticket for this game, so I’d love to see Ireland win it. I think they would stand a good chance of it as well.

Final

England v New Zealand

New Zealand of course would be the favourites going into this match. However, they are not unbeatable. I remember a conversation I had with my Dad the morning of the 1^st December 2012 where I confidently stated that as excited as I was to be seeing the game, England would get battered by New Zealand. I couldn’t have been more wrong and England ran out 38-21 winners. My overall prediction is that New Zealand will win the tournament, and it would be a fitting sign off for Richie McCaw (assuming he does actually retire at the end of the tournament as has been suggested). If it is an England v New Zealand final, I will not be writing England off (I’ve made that mistake once before). I think England making the final would be a fantastic achievement for the team, and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that they go all the way.

So, that is how I see the tournament unfolding over the next 6-7 weeks. Regardless of what happens though, I know I am looking forward to what will hopefully be the best RWC in history thus far. Happy Rugby World Cup Day to all!