It is the half way point in the pool stages of the European
Rugby Champions Cup (the Heineken Cup replacement) and so far, it has lived up
to all expectations. Before the competition started, I looked over the pools in
an attempt to predict who would qualify and didn’t get very far. Not only are
we half way through the pool stage but this week (starting tomorrow) is the
second game in the double header games. I love the way this has been organised.
I’m going to talk about the tournament so far and go pool by pool. I am going
to make predictions to how I see the pools ending up but just like earlier in
the season when I tried to predict how they would end, this will be a tough
ask!
Pool 1
Current Standings:
Current Standings:
1.
Clermont Auvergne – Played 3, Won 2, Lost 1. 10
Points
2.
Munster – Played 3, Won 2, Lost 1. 9 Points.
3.
Saracens – Played 3, Won 2, Lost 1. 9 Points.
4.
Sale – Played 3, Won 0, Lost 3. 2 Points.
Well, this pool could hardly be any tighter after 3 games. I seem to recall reading an interview with the Sale Sharks Director of Rugby Steve Diamond who said that Sale were not just in this group to make up the numbers. I saw this as him doing his job, but really I gave them no chance of qualification. After their first game, where they came so close to beating Munster at home, I wondered if I was wrong to have written them off (they wound up losing that game 26-27 with Munster claiming the win in the dying minutes of the game). Unfortunately they then went to Clermont and got taken apart 35-3. After a narrow loss at home to Saracens, Sale find themselves at the bottom of this pool and facing elimination (I think with the way things are going across the board, even if Sale got 3 bonus point wins, they still wouldn’t have enough points to qualify). Clermont picked up a huge win away at Munster, becoming the first French team to win at Thomond Park I think. Their only defeat so far coming in a close game with Saracens where it was just the one score that separated them. The one defeat that Saracens have had in this pool has been against Munster at Thomond and I think that Saracens will be disappointed they got nothing out of that game.
Fixtures:
Clermont – Munster (H), Sale (A), Saracens (H)
Munster – Clermont (A), Saracens (A), Sale (H)
Saracens – Sale (H), Munster (H), Clermont (A)
Sale – Saracens (A), Clermont (H), Munster (A)
Munster – Clermont (A), Saracens (A), Sale (H)
Saracens – Sale (H), Munster (H), Clermont (A)
Sale – Saracens (A), Clermont (H), Munster (A)
Clermont are in the driving seat in this pool, but only
just. Had Munster or Saracens picked up an extra bonus point in one of their
games, this pool would be even closer. As it happens, they didn’t and Clermont
have the smallest of advantages. What they and Saracens both have though is the
benefit of two home games left out of their three fixtures. In Europe, you have
to see your home games as winnable, and when you start to lose them, that is
when you start to look at elimination. Clermont will see they have Munster at
home, who no doubt will be smarting after their home loss, and still see that
as a winnable game – Saracens will be the same except they will be looking to
gain some revenge on Munster (after losing at Thomond). I am expecting to see
both Clermont and Saracens win their home games this weekend and then be
fighting it out for the top 2 with the winner of the pool being decided on the
final game of the pool...where Clermont are at home. Munster lost their home
tie to Clermont last weekend and if they lose this weekend, I think they will
be all but eliminated. Sale at this stage could use this time to bring in some
new faces into their team to give them European experience against some top
clubs, but they could still influence the outcome of this pool. They came very
close against both Munster and Saracens to getting the win. It would be a real
shame if they went through the pool stages losing all their games, but I fear
that is what will happen. My prediction for this pool is that Clermont will win
the pool with Saracens finishing runners up and maybe qualifying for the knock
out stages.
Pool 2
Current Standings:
Current Standings:
1.
Harlequins – Played 3, Won 3, Lost 0. 12 Points
2.
Leinster – Played 3, Won 2, Lost 1. 9 Points
3.
Wasps – Played 3 Won 1, Lost 2. 7 Points
4.
Castres. Played 3. Won 0. Lost 3, 1 Point.
There are only 2 teams in this tournament so far who have
100% records, and Harlequins is one of them. They kicked off the tournament
with a 25-9 win over Castres, went away to beat Wasps 16-23 and last weekend
beat Leinster 24-18. Leinster started off their campaign with a home win
against Wasps (25-20) and went to France and got the win against Castres
(16-21). Wasps could argue the biggest disappointment of their campaign thus
far was the home defeat to Harlequins. They have picked up a bonus point in all
3 of their games so far (a feat made even more impressive when you consider
their winning bonus point was away in France), so even though they have lost 2
games, they are not out of this competition yet. Castres are having a bit of a
nightmare season so far – bottom of the Top 14 and bottom of Pool 2 with no
wins. I think it is safe to say that they will likely be eliminated.
Fixtures:
Harlequins – Leinster (A), Wasps (H), Castres (A)
Leinster – Harlequins (H), Castres (H), Wasps (A)
Wasps – Castres (H), Harlequins (A), Leinster (H)
Castres – Wasps (A), Leinster (A), Harlequins (H)
Leinster – Harlequins (H), Castres (H), Wasps (A)
Wasps – Castres (H), Harlequins (A), Leinster (H)
Castres – Wasps (A), Leinster (A), Harlequins (H)
Harlequins go into the final 3 games undefeated but have to
travel to Leinster this weekend. That will be a nasty game for them and I
expect Leinster will be unhappy with having lost on the road and will want to
win at home to make up for it. If Quins lose this game, they have to get their
first bonus point of the competition to keep things tight at the top. Quins
have already received a double blow in that both Robshaw and Evans are out of
this match injured. If they get the win in Ireland, it will be a famous European
victory for sure! I think the game against Wasps could go either way (although
they have now won their last 4 against Wasps) and I would expect them to get a
result against Castres, even though it is away. Leinster could lose this game
and still qualify but it would make life very hard for them. Wasps have to win
all 3 of their remaining games. They, like Leinster, are fortunate enough to be
in a position where they have 2 home games in their last 3 fixtures. Their game
this weekend is Castres and normally I would expect them to win this game, but
as it is the last game at Adams Park before they move to the Ricoh Arena, it
could well be a very emotional game for fans and players alike, so I am
convinced they will go all out to get a win. Wasps could win all 3 of their
games but it will be a tough job. Then again, there are no easy paths to the
knock out stages in this tournament! The last game, their first European home
game at the Ricoh against Leinster will be tasty. Castres I expect with one point
to their name will likely turn up for these games but I don’t see them putting
up much of a fight. I imagine now their main focus will be to get off the foot
of the Top 14 table so they will field their strongest team in those matches,
as opposed to a European Cup that they are already all but eliminated from. I
predict Leinster will win this group, and Harlequins will be a very close
second and they will qualify for the quarter finals.
Pool 3
Current Standings:
1.
Toulon – Played 3, Won 2, Lost 1. 9 Points
2.
Leicester Tigers – Played 3, Won 2, Lost 1, 8
Points
3.
Ulster – Played 3, Won 1, Lost 2. 6 Points
4.
Scarlets – Played 3, Won 1, Lost 2. 4 Points
The last winners of the Heineken Cup, Toulon, got their
campaign off to a start with a 28-18 win over Scarlets that had a lot of people
saying that Toulon will need to be much better if they want to win this
tournament. They then won away at Ulster 13-23 before going down 25-21 to
Leicester Tigers, picking up their only bonus point so far. Leicester started
off their campaign with a 25-18 win against Ulster before losing 15-3 to
Scarlets. I was surprised to see them lose to Scarlets in all honesty. Ulster’s
single win of the campaign came in round 3 against Scarlets when they beat them
24-9 at Kingspan. Scarlets biggest result was of course the win against
Leicester.
Fixtures:
Toulon – Leicester (H), Ulster (H), Scarlets (A)
Leicester – Toulon (A), Scarlets (H), Ulster (A)
Ulster – Scarlets (A), Toulon (A), Leicester (H)
Scarlets – Ulster (H), Leicester (A), Toulon (H)
Leicester – Toulon (A), Scarlets (H), Ulster (A)
Ulster – Scarlets (A), Toulon (A), Leicester (H)
Scarlets – Ulster (H), Leicester (A), Toulon (H)
I think all eyes will be on the rematch between Leicester
and Toulon this weekend. Last week’s match was a fiery affair in which
Leicester deservedly won. After the game there were a couple of incidents
including Martin Castrogiovanni (former Tigers player) launch into an
expletive-laden attack aimed at Leicester Tigers and Richard Cockerill. Another
incident that remains alleged surrounds Delon Armitage and him abusing
Leicester Tigers fans. In a recent interview, Richard Cockerill said he doesn’t
think this will add anything extra to the weekend’s game but I can’t see how it
won’t. It will be an excellent game, that is for sure and if Leicester play
just as well as they did on Sunday, there is no reason why they couldn’t get
the win. As for the rest of Toulon’s games, I think they will beat both Ulster
and Scarlets. I think now that Leicester have seemingly reduced their injury
list, they are a much harder team to play and as a result, will likely also
beat both Ulster and Scarlets. Ulster away could be a tricky one for Leicester
though. Ulster comfortably beat Scarlets last weekend and I think it will be a
tighter affair this time round but I see Ulster getting the win. I suspect the
winner of the second Toulon/Tigers game will likely end up winning the pool. I
think that Toulon will win that game at home and go on to win the group but
Leicester will be a very close second and they will qualify for the knock out
stages.
Pool 4
Current Standings:
1.
Toulouse – Played 3, Won 3, Lost 0. 12 Points
2.
Glasgow Warriors – Played 3, Won 2, Lost 1. 9
Points
3.
Bath Rugby – Played 3, Won 1, Lost 2. 5 Points
4.
Montpellier – Played 3, Won 0, Lost 3. 2 Points
Much like Harlequins in Pool 2, Toulouse are undefeated so
far and are looking pretty decent as well. After a bit of a rough start in the
Top 14, they seem to have steadied the ship domestically just in time for
Europe and have come out swinging. Their first win was a close match with
Montpellier, with Toulouse winning 30-23. Their second game was a massive away
win at Bath (the 19-21 score line flattering Bath somewhat) before beating
Glasgow at home last weekend 19-11. Glasgow started off their European campaign
by battering Bath 37-10 before beating Montpellier in France in a very close
contest (13-15 the final score). Bath’s campaign got off to a poor start with
the away defeat to Glasgow (in which they very much looked like the second best
team) and a home defeat to Toulouse (where very rarely did they look like they
would threaten the Toulouse defence). Last weekend was the final roll of the
dice for their European campaign really and they beat Montpellier 5-30. Montpellier,
much like Castres, are yet to get a victory in this seasons competition.
Fixtures:
Toulouse – Glasgow (A), Bath (H), Montpellier (A)
Glasgow – Toulouse (H), Montpellier (H), Bath (A)
Bath – Montpellier (H), Toulouse (A), Glasgow (H)
Montpellier – Bath (A), Glasgow (A), Toulouse (H)
Glasgow – Toulouse (H), Montpellier (H), Bath (A)
Bath – Montpellier (H), Toulouse (A), Glasgow (H)
Montpellier – Bath (A), Glasgow (A), Toulouse (H)
I think Glasgow will definitely consider the Toulouse game
at Scotstoun to be a winnable game. If they do win, and Bath win their game
against Montpellier (with a bonus point), it really opens this pool up. I think
though if that happened, then the runner up in Pool 4 would not make it to the
knock out stages. Toulouse if memory serves have an excellent record at home in
Europe, and I would imagine they will get the win against Bath at home. That
win would definitely eliminate Bath from the competition, regardless of what
they could achieve against Montpellier and Glasgow. If Bath turn up and play
their best, there is no reason why they can’t beat Glasgow at The Rec in
January. Glasgow however will be hunting for a place in the knock out stages. I
think their home match with Toulouse will be very tight. If Glasgow can get the
win against Toulouse, then I can see them going on to win the pool. It was
widely predicted that Montpellier will field a weaker team against Bath as
there is no chance of them qualifying for the knock out stages now and it has
been announced they are making 8 changes to the team that lost 5-30. However,
due to my lack of knowledge of their squad, I am not in a place to comment on
whether or not they have weakened their team (although one would assume with
that many changes, they have). Bath on the other hand are starting Sam Burgess
and Francois Louw for the first time this season – if that is not a signal of
intent, I don’t know what is. I predict that Toulouse will win this group and
Glasgow will finish second, but I’m not sure if they will qualify for the knock
out stages.
Pool 5
Current Standings:
1.
Racing Metro - Played 3, Won 2, Drawn 1, Lost 0.
10 Points
2.
Northampton Saints – Played 3, Won 2, Lost 1. 10
Points
3.
Ospreys – Played 3, Won 1 , Drawn 1, Lost 1. 7
Points.
4.
Treviso – Played 3. Won 0, Lost 3. 0 Points.
Racing Metro started their campaign with a bang by beating
Northampton at home and denying them a losing bonus point (the final score was
20-11). Their next game was away against Treviso where they won 10-26 – the biggest
surprise here being that they didn’t get the try bonus point. Their game last
weekend against Ospreys ended in a 19-19 draw, so far the only draw of the
European Rugby Champions Cup. After losing their opening game, Northampton won
their next two games very convincingly, picking up try bonus points against
both Ospreys and Treviso (34-6 and 15-38 respectively). Ospreys have had a
mixed campaign so far. Their 42-7 home win against Treviso was to be expected.
Their best result so far though has to be the 19-19 draw against Racing Metro
(a game I am sure many people, myself included, expected them to lose). As for
Treviso, there are no easy pools in the top European competition for an Italian
club. I can’t say I’m surprised that they are on 0 points though.
Fixtures:
Racing Metro – Ospreys (H), Treviso (H), Northampton (A)
Northampton – Treviso (H), Ospreys (A), Racing Metro (H)
Ospreys – Racing Metro (A), Northampton (H), Treviso (A)
Treviso – Northampton (A), Racing Metro (A), Ospreys (H)
Northampton – Treviso (H), Ospreys (A), Racing Metro (H)
Ospreys – Racing Metro (A), Northampton (H), Treviso (A)
Treviso – Northampton (A), Racing Metro (A), Ospreys (H)
I suspect that Racing Metro will beat Ospreys on their patch
and go on to beat Treviso there as well. I predict similar results for
Northampton as well setting up a final day clash to decide who will win the
pool. I’d say Northampton would go in with a slight edge as the game is at
Franklin’s Gardens but Racing have beat them already in this competition. Both
teams are going well domestically so this final week clash will be tasty.
Ospreys I suspect probably will lose their next two and go into the game
against Treviso with little on stake but pride. Treviso will do well to get some points on the
board. If they can cause an upset, it could change the way the group will play
out, but I don’t see it happening (otherwise it wouldn’t really be an upset
then would it?) I predict that Northampton Saints will win this pool with
Racing Metro finishing second. If both teams go into this game having got
maximum points out of their other games, there is no reason why the runner up
shouldn’t qualify for the next round.
And that is it for the first 3 rounds of the European Rugby
Champions Cup. There has been some excellent rugby with some more to come as
well I am sure. It is interesting to note that out of 5 pools, only one is not
currently being lead by a French team (Pool 2). Based on the predictions I have
made, the quarter finals could contain Clermont, Saracens, Harlequins,
Leinster, Toulon, Leicester Tigers, Toulouse, Glasgow, Northampton Saints and
Racing Metro. Any combination of those teams making up the final 8 means we are
in for a belting European tournament which concludes on May 2nd at Twickenham. I
can’t wait to see how it all plays out!
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